一帶一路將帶來什麼影響

The Belt and Road B&R

一帶一路（英文：the Belt and Road，縮寫B&R，國際民間代號1216），
"One Belt and One Road" refers to the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" ）

是指“絲綢之路經濟帶”和“21世紀海上絲綢之路”，“一帶一路”不是一個實體和機制，而是合作發展的理念和倡議，是充分依靠中國與有關國家既有的雙多邊機制，借助既有的、行之有效的區域合作平臺，旨在借用古代“絲綢之路”的歷史符號，高舉和平發展的旗幟，積極主動地發展與沿線國家的經濟合作夥伴關係，共同打造政治互信、經濟融合、文化包容的利益共同體、命運共同體和責任共同體。

2014年博鼇亞洲論壇年會開幕大會上，中華人民共和國國務委員楊潔篪
主題是「亞洲的新未來：尋找和釋放新的發展動力中國全面闡述了亞洲合作政策，並特別強調要推進“一帶一路”的建設。“一帶一路”規劃，被認為是“中國版馬歇爾計畫”的戰略載體。第71屆聯合國大會決議歡迎“一帶一路”等經濟合作倡議，敦促各方通過“一帶一路”倡議，呼籲國際社會為“一帶一路”倡議建設提供安全保障環境




。2016年12月16日（“一帶一路”國際日），全球留學生志願者舉行慶祝活動，聯合國總部降旗以示歡迎。


思想背景

當今世界正發生複雜深刻的變化，國際金融危機深層次影響繼續顯現，世界經濟緩慢複蘇、發展分化，國際投資貿易格局和多邊投資貿易規則醞釀深刻調整，各國面臨的發展問題依然嚴峻。

在國際世界經濟複蘇乏力，發達經濟體貨幣政策走向分化的背景下。很多國家的經濟可能面臨困境，亟需新的經濟增長點，亟需新的經濟火車頭來帶動世界經濟。中國藉此機會，將有利於幾乎所有國家的中國戰略、政策融入到“一帶一路”和APEC當中，實現共贏。

絲綢之路的復興-博鼇亞洲論壇2014年年會
 
自信互信，共襄盛舉
——在博鼇亞洲論壇2014年年會“絲綢之路的復興：對話亞洲領導人”分論壇上的演講
（2014年4月10日 海南博鼇）
中華人民共和國國務委員楊潔篪

Jointly Undertake the Great Initiatives With Confidence and Mutual Trust
Speech by H.E. Yang Jiechi
State Councilor of the People's Republic of China
At the Session of "Reviving the Silk Road: A Dialogue with Asian Leaders" at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2014
Boao, Hainan, 10 April 2014
 
 
各位貴賓，媒體朋友們，女士們、先生們：
很高興參加今年的博鼇亞洲論壇年會。在中外同事和各界人士的共同努力下，論壇正成為亞洲乃至全球最具影響力的高端論壇之一。這種影響力不僅基於高水準的參與者和組織者，也源於論壇對時代潮流和前沿課題的準確把握，包括舉辦這次絲綢之路分論壇。我謹借此機會感謝在座的各國領導人和各界朋友出席本次分論壇，共商絲綢之路建設。 


        
Distinguished Chinese and Foreign Guests,Friends from the Press,
Ladies and Gentlemen,   It gives me great pleasure to attend the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference. Thanks to the concerted efforts of colleagues and people from various sectors in China and other countries, the Forum is becoming one of the most influential high-end fora in Asia and beyond. Its influence stems not just from its high-caliber participants and organizers but also its acute antenna for the current trend and frontier topics of discussion, including the discussion we are having today on the Silk Road. I would like to take this opportunity to express my thanks to you, leaders from various countries and friends from all sectors, for joining our discussions on the building of the Silk Road.

去年秋天，習近平主席在訪問中亞和東南亞國家時，分別提出建設絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路兩大倡議，合稱為“一帶一路”，得到國際社會高度關注和有關國家積極回應。今天上午，李克強總理在演講中全面闡述中國的亞洲合作政策，特別表示要推進“一帶一路”建設。我們此時的研討具有重要意義。         

The two initiatives of building a Silk Road economic belt and a 21st-century maritime Silk Road, known for short as the Belt and the Road, were put forth by President Xi Jinping during his two separate visits to Central Asia and Southeast Asia last fall. The initiatives have received positive response from countries concerned and been followed with great interest by the international community. Premier Li Keqiang, in his speech this morning on China's policy toward Asian cooperation, made a special mentioning of the importance of building the Belt and the Road. Our discussion this afternoon is therefore highly relevant.

幾天前，我陪同習近平主席訪問歐洲，感到歐洲各界對“一帶一路”很關注、很熱心。中歐聯合聲明指出，中歐決定共同挖掘絲綢之路經濟帶與歐盟政策的契合點，探討在絲綢之路經濟帶沿線開展合作的共同倡議。習主席在德國杜伊斯堡出席始發於重慶的中歐鐵路班列抵港儀式，氣氛隆重熱烈，在場的每個人都直觀感受到，絲綢之路不再是歷史書上的概念，而是現代物流和中歐合作的新鮮故事，沿路人民得到了實實在在的利益。    
 
When I accompanied President Xi on his visit to Europe a few days ago, I found that people in different sectors across Europe have shown great interest and enthusiasm in the Belt and the Road. German leaders described the Silk Road economic belt as a significant initiative that will benefit Germany, and pledged Germany's full support and active participation. The Joint Statement released by China and the EU stated that the two sides will develop synergies between EU policies and China's "Silk Road Economic Belt" initiative and jointly explore common initiatives along these lines. During his visit to Germany, President Xi Jinping attended a grand welcoming ceremony in Duisburg for a train that arrived from Chongqing along the China-Europe railway. To everyone present there, the Silk Road, once a mere term in the history book, has become a novel story of modern logistics and of China-Europe cooperation delivering real benefits to people along the way.

歐洲對古今絲綢之路的熱情並不偶然，從一個側面反映了世界對亞洲古老文明和當今發展潛力的再認識，反映了經濟全球化和世界多極化背景下東西方交流合作的新趨勢。    
 

Europe's enthusiasm for the Silk Road, both the ancient and the modern, is nothing accidental. It is one reflection of the world's renewed recognition of Asia's time-honored civilizations and its development potential today. It shows a new trend of communication and cooperation between the East and the West amid economic globalization and a move toward multi-polarity.

歐洲是古代絲綢之路的終點，但絲綢原產於中國，絲綢之路的起點在中國，許多重要地域是在亞洲。中國和亞洲各國人民篳路藍縷走出這條路，披星戴月維護這條路，對絲綢之路有著天然的親近感。可以說，絲綢之路是亞洲各國共同歷史與輝煌文明的見證，是亞洲人民歷史文化自豪感的源泉，也是亞洲各國團結合作的旗幟。         
 
Europe was the end of the ancient Silk Road, yet silk originated from China, where the Silk Road started, and many important areas of the Silk Road ran through Asia. The Asian people opened the Silk Road, withstanding great hardships, and preserved it throughout the years. We therefore feel a natural affinity for the Silk Road, which had once witnessed the common history and glory of the Asian civilizations. For the Asian people, the Silk Road provides a source of historical and cultural pride, and stands as a flag of unity and cooperation among Asian countries.

絲綢之路給了亞洲人歷史文化的自信。2000多年前絲綢之路開闢之際，亞洲早已孕育出成熟的文明，生產力、管理水準和開放程度領先世界，很多考古發現和西方學者都證明瞭這一點。佛教、基督教、伊斯蘭教等宗教的發祥地都在亞洲，絲綢、瓷器、漆器、鐵器、馬鞍、源於中國的“四大發明”和源於印度的“阿拉伯數字”，都曾是亞洲的“專利”。通過絲綢之路，亞洲國家敞開胸懷接納外國商人和學子，毫無保留提供最先進的商品和技術。  
       
  
The Silk Road has given the people of Asia confidence in their history and culture. As early as over 2,000 years ago, when the Silk Road first began to take shape, Asia already boasted matured civilizations and was leading the world in productivity, managerial expertise and the level of openness. Ample proof of this could be found in archeological discoveries and the study by western scholars. Asia was the cradle of Buddhism, Christianity and Islam. Silk, porcelain, lacquerware, ironware, saddle, the four great inventions of ancient China (papermaking, gunpowder, movable-type printing and compass) and the Arabic numerals of India were all, at one time, the proprietary rights of Asia. It was through the Silk Road that Asian countries embraced foreign merchants and students and shared with them, without reservation, Asia's most advanced commodities and technologies.

近代以來，亞洲國家落後了，飽受列強侵略、殖民之苦，面臨外部強勢文化的衝擊，但亞洲國家珍愛自己的歷史文化，維護自己的價值觀根基。今天亞洲人不會陶醉於過去的光榮歷史，也不會為歷史悲情所累，而是從傳統文化中汲取自強創新的營養，譜寫美好的歷史新篇。         
 
 Since modern times, however, Asian countries have been left behind, suffering from the invasion and colonization of foreign powers and the shock of strong cultures from the outside. Nevertheless, Asian countries cherish their own history and culture, and have sought to uphold the roots of their own values. Today, the people of Asia, neither conceited with past glory nor indulged in the memory of old sufferings, have chosen to draw strength from their tradition and culture, be innovative and strive to write a new chapter in Asia's history.

絲綢之路給了亞洲人發展道路的自信。多樣性和多元化是亞洲的特色和優勢，絲綢之路上每一個文明、民族和國家都有自己的社會土壤和發展軌跡，都是平等和獨特的，沒有高低優劣的區別，也沒有強求一致的必要。基於多樣性，商人們才能互通有無，智者們才能交流互鑒，世界也才能豐富多彩。古代的絲綢之路不是一條，而是存在許多路徑的選擇，涵蓋了亞洲和歐洲廣大的地區和國家。這對我們今天思考發展道路問題頗有啟示。    
 
 
The Silk Road has given the people of Asia confidence in their development paths. Heterogeneity and diversity is the very feature and advantage of Asia. Every civilization, ethnic group and country along the Silk Road has its own social soil and development trajectory and everyone is equal and unique. The difference is never about which is superior and there is no need to force conformity. It is based on heterogeneity that businessmen have been able to trade, wise men communicate and the world be diverse and colorful. Instead of being just one single road, the ancient Silk Road actually provided a choice of several roads, which passed through broad areas and many countries in Asia and Europe. This is quite inspiring as we engage ourselves in discussion on our development paths today.

近現代以來，亞洲的仁人志士苦苦探索國強民富之路，經歷了很多挫折，結論是發展道路必須立足本國國情，可以借鑒外國經驗但絕不能照搬。基於這一認識，依靠自力更生和國際合作，冷戰後的亞洲創造了經濟發展的奇跡，經受了亞洲金融危機和國際金融危機的洗禮。亞洲開發銀行的最新報告預測，45個亞洲發展中經濟體今明兩年的經濟增長將分別達到6.2%和6.4%，高出發達國家平均增長率兩倍以上。這十分不容易，說明亞洲國家堅持走自己的路是對的，這條路有荊棘，但卻是康莊大道。         
 

 Since modern times, patriots and righteous people in Asia have explored tirelessly paths to a prosperous and strong nation. After experiencing many setbacks, they have come to the conclusion that to choose a proper development path, one must bear in mind the distinctive national conditions and that one may learn from but should never copy the experience of other countries. It is based on such an understanding that Asia, after the end of the Cold War, created miracles of economic development by working hard on its own and carrying out international cooperation. Asia has stood the test of the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis. According to the latest forecast of the Asian Development Bank, 45 developing economies in Asia will achieve a growth rate of 6.2% this year and 6.4% next year, more than twice the average for developed countries. Such result is not easily gained. It shows that Asian countries have done the right thing in sticking to their own paths which, despite thorns on the way, lead to bright prospects.

絲綢之路給了亞洲人包容合作的自信。通過絲綢之路，東西方以和平、平等的方式開展多領域、深層次的交流，亞歐大陸很早就形成了貿易網路，各方都獲益匪淺。古代中國的冶鐵、耕作和水利灌溉技術西傳南輸，大幅提高了周邊國家的生產力。來自南亞的醫學、曆法和雕塑藝術，在中國得到重視和運用。箜篌和馬球是古代中亞遊牧民族的發明，在中國音樂史和體育史上都有一席之地。東帝汶的檀香，泰國的大象，老撾的木雕，俄羅斯的毛皮，歐洲和西亞的琉璃，巴基斯坦、緬甸和斯裡蘭卡的寶石，都深受古代中國人民喜愛。         

The Silk Road has given the people of Asia confidence to pursue inclusive cooperation. The Silk Road had enabled the East and the West to thoroughly interact with each other in peace and equality in all possible areas. The network for trade running over the Eurasian continent way back in the early days brought benefits to all sides. The ancient Chinese technologies of iron-smelting, farming and irrigation were brought to neighboring countries to the west and south of China and greatly increased those countries' productivity, while the medicine, calendar and sculpturing art from South Asia were applied and valued in China. The Chinese Harp and Polo, created by ancient nomads in Central Asia, featured proudly in the history of Chinese music and sports. The sandalwood from Timor-Leste, elephant from Thailand, wood sculpture from the Laos, leather and fur from Russia, colored glaze from Europe and west Asia, and gems from Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka were all highly popular with ancient Chinese.

一些宗教或宗教教派通過陸海絲綢之路傳入中國，與中國的本土宗教相互融合，和諧相處。古代中外的使節、商人和取經求法的智者，得到了絲綢之路沿途民眾的無私幫助，否則他們寸步難行。    

Some religions or sections of religion, after being introduced into China via the land and maritime silk roads, integrated with home-grown religions in China and coexisted with them in harmony. For the numerous Chinese and foreign envoys, merchants and the wise questing for scriptures and knowledge, it was the Silk Road, and the people who kindly assisted them along the way, that had made their journeys possible.

今天亞洲國家的交通和物質條件好多了，區域合作也進入新階段，亞洲國家應當弘揚和平友好、開放包容、互利共贏的絲綢之路精神，賦予其新的時代內涵。    

Now that conditions for transport and infrastructure are much more improved, countries in Asia may well live up to the Silk Road spirit of peace, friendship, openness, inclusiveness and win-win cooperation, and endeavor to add to it a new dimension by bringing regional cooperation to a new stage.

新的時代內涵，很重要的一點是互信。中國人講“人無信不立”，法國文豪大仲馬講“信任是稀有的珍寶”。古代的人們走絲綢之路，很難獨來獨往，需要結伴而行、相互照應，海上行船更需要同舟共濟、分工協作。今天我們的技術能力突飛猛進，但交通合作仍面臨不少隱性困難，一些亞洲國家之間還存在信任赤字。無論是開展互聯互通還是建設“一帶一路”，都需要就互信問題下更大的功夫。         


An important part of this new dimension, as I see it, is mutual trust. The Chinese people believe that "one would achieve nothing without credibility". Alexandre Dumas, the celebrated French writer, noted that "confidence is a rare jewel". In fact, travelers on the ancient Silk Road could hardly make the journey alone. They had to travel in company and look after each other on the way. They even had to work with each other when they sailed in a same boat on the sea. Despite the leapfrog development in science and technology, cooperation in transport today still faces hidden difficulties, and some Asian countries still suffer from a "deficit of trust". I believe as we work to improve connectivity and promote the Belt and Road initiatives, more needs to be done to increase mutual trust.

互信的基礎，是尊重歷史、以史為鑒，是各國都走和平發展道路，是恪守聯合國憲章與和平共處五項原則，是尊重彼此核心利益和重大關切，是以誠相待、互學互助。    

What forms the basis of mutual trust is for countries to respect history and draw lessons from it, follow a path of peaceful development, act in the spirit of the UN Charter and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, respect each others' core interests and major concerns, treat each other with sincerity and learn from and help each other.